\u201cThere\u2019s an ugly mood in the United States today\u201d, Zogby begins, as we open our conversation. \u201cIt\u2019s not new – it\u2019s been building.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With less than one week to go until November 5, the veteran pollster doesn\u2019t hold back in explaining why this feels like an extraordinarily high-stakes election. \u201c2024 is the first of what I would call a real \u2018Armageddon election\u2019, where many on both sides feel that if the other wins, this is truly the end of the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There\u2019s sufficient evidence to back up Zogby\u2019s view that the national mood is one of pessimism, despite the energy that Kamala Harris has arguably injected since becoming the face of the Democratic ticket. In the latest NYT \/ Siena poll of likely voters, more than three-fifths said the country was heading in the \u201cwrong direction\u201d. Only around a quarter thought the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cTraditionally this impacts the incumbent party\u201d, Zogby reflects on these figures. \u201cBoth parties are lamented, but it will have a greater impact on incumbents.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So where are we now?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe two sides are at equilibrium\u201d, Zogby observes, describing the current balance. \u201cA kind of calm before the storm.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cNationally and in the seven battleground states, this is a tie – at least as we speak. Will the dam break one way or another? It can, and it has. I\u2019m not ruling it out here, but at least for much of this campaign and right on up to this moment, no one leads the presidential race.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both candidates are relying on different, distinct parts of the electorate to carry them over the line, Zogby explains. Harris, he argues, has built \u201cwhat can only be called an \u2018unholy alliance\u2019\u201d as the base of her support. The three pillars Zogby identifies are traditional Democrats, some – but not enough – progressives, and \u201cdisaffected Republicans who hate Donald Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is proving difficult for Harris, Zogby explains, in that it’s therefore \u201chard for her to talk in detail about policy without angering one side or the other\u201d. \u201cSo what is the common denominator that holds this alliance together? It\u2019s a fear of Donald Trump, and reproductive rights.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump, on the other hand, speaks to a certain \u201canger\u201d among the American electorate fomented over several generations as the United States has undergone significant change, Zogby explains. \u201cThose who work at jobs that pay less than previous jobs\u2026 who look outside their windows\u201d and wonder \u201cwhat\u2019s happened to [their] community?\u201d. A number of these voters take a nostalgic approach to American history, reflecting back on a time when the United States was always able to say \u201cit\u2019s our way or the highway\u201d, but now ask themselves \u201cwhere is that American greatness anymore?\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But how does an appeal to these voters work – and what role is personality playing?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cLet me begin by saying personality is key\u201d, Zogby says. \u201cIt\u2019s very important because voters need to bond with a candidate in some way to feel that the candidate represents them, speaks for them, and understands them. That\u2019s critical.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zogby looks to historical precedent to illustrate how and where personality has proved key. \u201cBill Clinton, Barack Obama, those winning candidates had a personality that voters could project themselves on to.\u201d To say, \u201cthis is my guy. This is who I want to lead. This guy has a story. That I can relate to.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cJoe Biden was able to win with that leveling story\u201d, Zogby explains. \u201cYou\u2019ve suffered, Americans. I\u2019ve suffered. I lost my family; I lost my son. He was Uncle Joe, you know?\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Come 2024, however, \u201cthat story could not be told anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite Biden\u2019s withdrawal, it does not appear that pure positivity and a strong and engaging personality is having the same effect this year as it has in the past. \u201cTo use the clich\u00e9, the smiling candidate has traditionally won – not all the time – but you know, the happier face, the vision, the projection for the future of better days are ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI just don\u2019t see that working this time around.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is, however, a dividing line between the candidates, Zogby explains. While much lingering anger fuels support for Trump, Harris is attempting to paint a brighter picture. \u201cShe is the all in one, the demography of the future of the United States. She\u2019s a woman in what many would argue is a feminist-focused society, she\u2019s South Asian, and she\u2019s Black.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn addition to that, somebody told her you got a beautiful smile – use it. It\u2019s rage versus that smile.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAnd there we go. It\u2019s equilibrium.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both candidates are succeeding, though, in drawing voters to their cause. That is emphatically clear in the polling. But what traits are cutting through?<\/p>\n\n\n\n In ViewsHub\u2019s \u2018Who is Fit to Govern the US?’ tracker, a crowd-sourced platform aimed at assessing the personality traits of America\u2019s leading political figures, some of the distinct traits of both candidates were clear. For Trump, contributors identified a personality that was \u201cdominant\u201d, \u201cforceful\u201d \u201cretaliatory\u201d, and \u201cfocused on himself\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Harris, on the other hand, was seen as \u201cconsiderate\u201d, more \u201cstructured\u201d and \u201cserious\u201d, but equally quite \u201cpersistent\u201d and \u201ctenacious\u201d. We put those traits to John Zogby.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI agree\u201d, he says. \u201cI think that it’s very important that [Harris] is a prosecutor. That puts her on an equal level with Donald Trump – being a prosecutor against a convicted felon. You know, that\u2019s the kind of perfect storm there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Trump\u2019s distinct traits are also having significant implications for the shape of the electorate. Polls continue to suggest that this will be the most gendered election in history. Recent NYT\/Siena polling indicates that this gender divide is most stark among young people, with a divide of up to 60 percentage points. Trump leads Harris among young men, 58 percent to 37 percent, while Harris holds an even larger lead among young women, 67-28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We put to Zogby the potential influence of Trump\u2019s \u2018strongman\u2019 traits on contributing to this divide. \u201cI think [the divide] already exists. But the fact that it happens to be a man versus a woman puts an exclamation point on what really is an unprecedented gender gap.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cBut\u201d, he continues, \u201cI think that the one thing that can be healed is the young gender gap.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n That said, though, Trump\u2019s direct appeal to young men – and men more widely – seems deliberate. \u201cYou know, Donald Trump is the baddest guy in town – and guys like that\u201d, Zogby says. \u201cHe and JD Vance are talking to guys, there\u2019s no pretense at all that there\u2019s a \u2018softer\u2019 side to the campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Is it worth looking at voter perceptions of candidate personality to judge where an election might go?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt\u2019s a vital piece of the mix, you know, to boil it down in simple terms. If [voters] like the candidate on a personal level and feel that they are \u2018one\u2019 in some way with that candidate, they\u2019ll follow them on the issues. In fact, they\u2019ll project themselves [onto candidates].\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cPeople have to be comfortable and need to bond with who they\u2019re going to vote for for President. And in that sense, you have two radically distinct personalities here, each right now representing about half of the electorate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n So where are we headed – and what might be the deciding factor in the election?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt\u2019s very complicated\u201d, Zogby concedes. But those considered before are those which Zogby thinks are making things most difficult for Harris. Chief among these is the fact that Kamala Harris \u201crepresents an unpopular administration – whether it’s fair or not.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFrom the point of view of a lot of voters, inflation – even its slower rate – is building upon prices that are too high. You\u2019ve got a burgeoning war in the Middle East\u201d and a majority of the electorate that \u201cfeel the country is heading in the wrong direction\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThat\u2019s how it\u2019s close\u201d, Zogby concludes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI can\u2019t quite predict it\u201d, Zogby says of determining what might prove the most influential factor in the election’s eventual outcome. \u201cI have a hunch – and this is only a hunch – that this may be an election like 1980, Carter versus Reagan, or 2012, Obama versus Romney, where the dam breaks over the weekend, and it\u2019s not so close.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI\u2019m just not sure which way the dam is going to break.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u201cThere\u2019s an ugly mood in the United States today\u201d, Zogby begins, as we open our conversation. \u201cIt\u2019s not new – it\u2019s been building.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=667"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":669,"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667\/revisions\/669"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.viewshub.com\/theloop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}